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The US fading into history by Abid Ullah Jan Many would laugh at the idea that the United States is already on its way to fading into history. History, however, will say, “On September 11, 2001 the US was at its zenith. This was the day that America’s slide began.” In the midst of brainwashed emotions of the moment, we can all sense that the US has crossed a watershed. But we don’t quite know what that means. Whether we believe it or not, targeting Islam is the sure recipe for the fall of United States in the not too distant future in the 21st century. Analysts such as Thomas L. Friedman predict that in the end, “9/11 will have a much bigger impact on the Arab and Muslim worlds than it does on America” because the problem lies with the Muslim world and not the United States. Other experts in predicting international events, such as Samuel P. Huntington believe that we have entered an age of “Muslim wars” in which “Muslim violence could congeal into one major clash of civilizations between Islam and the West or between Islam and the Rest.” These are attempts to rally support against Islam without knowing that it is no less than digging graves for what that defend. Contrary to their theories, the reality on the ground reveals that the world's 15 most deadly conflicts in 2001-02 were all primarily internal political or ethnic struggles rather than inter-state wars waged by Muslim states that are covered by well-established international rules of engagement. The direct and indirect US interference has intensified almost every conflict around the globe. In a number of cases, the root causes of these conflicts are related to: a) forced collapse of selected states, as in the case of the Taliban and Saddam Hussain; b) imposed dictatorships as in the case of Algeria, Egypt and Pakistan; or c) illegitimate support to occupations as in the case of Palestine, Kashmir and other places. These phenomena defy mock military solutions sought by the US for which it has increased its defence spending to a total of $396 billion. It is more than three times the combined defence budgets ($13 billion) of Iran, Iraq, Libya, North Korea, Cuba, Sudan, and Syria — all are Muslim states (except two) and appear on the state department's terrorism list. Washington's military dominance is, however, not a guarantee of security and may, in fact, create risks of its own. Involvement of Muslims in the conflict around the world does not necessarily mean that they are the aggressors in every case and that they are setting a stage for the global war with the rest of the world. “Radical Islam” is not a threat to the US survival as a great power, but those who spread this misconception surely are. Let us see how! First, the basis of American power is economic, military power is a reflection of economic power and does not exist independent of it. Apparently, for anyone to challenge America in a serious way would require an economy as large both in total size and in per person income to be competitive with America. Even in the apparent absence of such a power at the moment, the bleeding of American economic might has begun the day the WTC collapsed. Europe's military capability is not as meagre as they contributed almost nothing to Afghanistan and very little even in Kosovo or Bosnia. Allies they are but only in name. They are, however, not leaving America to carry out the military actions on its own. They rather participate in it when America insists to attack, so that they do not leave America to impose its complete dominance upon the areas of their influence. It is the US who has to bear the economic brunt of all the adventures that it would undertake in 21st century. Undoubtedly, it started as an American century but there are serious reservations that it would remain as such. There are two views of the US going down the history drain. From the secular point of view there are some important factors that proponents of “the end of history” and scare mongers of “radical Islam” ignore at their peril. The first is the European resurgence. Europe regards itself as the bastion of civilization and the American preponderance of the last 50 years as an aberration. The fact that it could do nothing about it was secondary to the Cold War that was principally fought on its soil. Islamic revival still seems a far cry. It is, however, hidden beneath the European resurgence, which is now the buzzword. The route it would take will be either of the less likely direct confrontation or that of proxy wars draining America — the route not very dissimilar to that America had taken. The transatlantic divergence is not a matter of if but when. The latent cause is that Europe cannot allow such overwhelming American control of its life-source — oil — and other resources, nor could the Muslims live under imposed governments forever to come. The fact that Europe is aware and intends to counter US hegemony is evident from its attempts at forming an “Euro-Force." The effort to form it even in the face of American opposition is a pointer to that. Bundeswehr's restructuring and in its doctrine specifying "capability to respond to situations" is thought provoking. France and Germany between them have the capability and resources to match US technology and economic muscle. That these two will find a working formula is a given. It is also very likely that these two will also find an unlikely ally for basically the same reason – oil – in Japan. The scenario of E.U.T.O. becoming the dominant military force is also likely with Russia joining in as the major force provider. The commonality of interests between them is just too much to be overlooked casually. This leaves Britain, which is jockeying for position at this time. Its two selling points are 1) North sea oil and 2) it is trusted by the US at this time. But sooner or later it will come to the position of realisation that it would rather be the second fiddle to its own co-races than be the same to the people in charge in Washington. Human nature being unchanged will revert to the baser instincts. The fact that Europe will challenge America is a forgone conclusion as America is trying to have a stranglehold on the world resources at this time. Today the supply of energy is not in the control of producing nations but in D.C. Control can not go unchallenged. The fact that it is US troops who will be in the line of fire to defend their control when shooting starts in the occupied lands will also be to European advantage. Notice in all the above scenarios the Muslim countries don't figure in at all except as pawns to do either side's dirty work. The dark horse in the race would be the Pakistan-Iran nexus, despite all the US efforts to create a wedge between them since early 90s’. Afghanistan would remain the land of Jihad and the graveyard of super powers. Iran and Pakistan, the only two nations who have a modicum of hope for Muslims at this time, will grow stronger together — neither of them individually. Together they would marshal military, economic and technological power. When they are able to do so and the US is drained, China will also explode on the scene on their side as a major catalyst for the alternate scenario. The so far described secular view endorses religious predictions of the Muslim and Jewish rise and fall. Although Israel occupies a tiny part of the globe and Muslim countries do not figure in the whole international scene to be unfolded this century. But history, as the current events prove, revolves around Jews and Muslims. In the final analysis, the US role is limited to carrying out Arab holocaust in the Middle East, paving the way for Greater Israel, bringing the world closer to its ultimate tragedy and itself fading into history like other empires of the past. Irrespective of its military or economic capability, the role of the region covering Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan and India is also significant from religious point of view. The armies that would help a single ideology, more precisely religion, to triumph over all others would also march from this region. Fukuyama’s postulate that history ended when the Western, capitalist ideology defeated all others would come to an end with the final victory ensured by the armies marching from Khurasan to the Middle East. The never ending conflict in the Middle East is a pointer to that. Interestingly, those who are working to defeat “radical Islam” are actually hastening their defeat. In the final analysis, the giant US remains but only as a helpless fading pawn in the whole scheme of things, facilitating its demise with its present policies. Concluded
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